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The Economic Impacts of a Citywide Minimum Wage
May 2006, by Arindrajit Dube, Suresh Naidu and Michael Reich
» Report
This report documents the effects of the 2004 San Francisco minimum wage law. Focusing on the San Francisco restaurant sector, the authors find that the law did not prompt employment loss or business closures. The authors provide a review of existing literature on minimum wage laws, and a detailed explanation of their methodology.
 The Economics of Citywide Minimum Wages: The San Francisco Model
January 2006, by Michael Reich, Arindrajit Dube and Gina Vickery
» Policy Brief 
This brief summarizes the findings of a May 2006 report (Dube, Naidu & Reich, “The Economic Impacts of a Citywide Minimum Wage”) focusing on the impact of San Francisco’s minimum wage law on the restaurant/food services sector. The authors conclude that the law resulted in no significant change in employment growth, a decrease in worker turnover, a slight increase in prices at fast-food restaurants, no significant increase in full-service restaurant prices, and a generally smooth citywide adaptation to the new law.
Minimum Wages and the California Economy: The Economic Impact of AB 48
September 2005, by Michael Reich, Arindrajit Dube and Gina Vickery
» Policy Brief
This report predicts the economic impact of the bill proposing an increase in California’s minimum wage, AB 48 (2005). The study details the effects on employees (e.g., direct and indirect effects on wages, the numbers and demographics of workers affected) and the effects on employers (e.g., direct and indirect effects on business costs by the firm size and type), with special attention to the restaurant sector. The authors find that the measure will not significantly impact the state’s businesses, creating only a slight increase in consumer prices, and will lead to an increase in wages for approximately 700,000 workers.
How will an increase from $6.75 to $7.75 in the California minimum wage impact the California economy?
Spring 2005, by Amy Vassalotti
» Report
This study assesses the potential economic implications for the private sector of an increase in the current California minimum wage. It finds that most establishments would face very modest cost increases, which entails only minor adjustments, if any, to the new minimum wage law. The study concludes that the cost increases to businesses are very modest, except in the accommodations and food services industry, which should be able to pass the cost increases on to consumers through price increases. Overall, the minimum wage increase should not affect the California economy negative ly, via loss of employment or business relocation out of the state.
Assessing the Distribution of Wage Increases and Answering Public Questions Regarding a San Francisco Minimum Wage
October 2003, by Alex Lantsberg
» Policy Brief
Written during the period of public debate before the passage of San Francisco’s minimum wage law, this brief calculates the potential impact of the law upon city workers and businesses. The authors calculate the number of workers to be affected by the law and the wage gains that will accrue to them, and give a breakdown of affected workers by ethnicity, gender, and age. The study also provides a point-by-point analysis of claims made in a report produced by the restaurant trade association.
Raising Low Pay in a High Income Economy: The Economics of a San Francisco Minimum Wage
May 2003, by Michael Reich and Amy Laitinen
» Report
This report was commissioned by the San Francisco Board of Supervisors to determine how a local minimum wage would affect workers and businesses in San Francisco, based on primary data from a survey of the city’s business establishments. The analysis considers three possible wage floors—$8.50, $9.00 and $10.00—as a means of giving policymakers a better understanding of the implications of different choices they might make. The authors conclude that a municipal minimum wage could be implemented without affecting the economy or employment conditions adversely, given that national and international economic conditions would outweigh the effects of municipal policy measures.
A Small Raise for the Bottom
2001, by Michael Reich and Peter Hall, The State of California Labor 2001, University of California Institute for Labor and Employment.
» Report
This paper discusses the growth of low-wage employment and examines rising wage inequality in California since 1980. It focuses on the 1996-98 California minimum wage increase which, the authors suggest, has played a role in modest reductions in wage inequality that occurred in the late 1990s. It concludes with recommendations for a subsequent phased increase in the minimum wage over several years, as dire predictions of negative impacts on overall and low-wage employment have not materialized.
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