About 3.7 million working-age adults already have lost insurance due to the recession, and 500,000 more will become uninsured over the next four years, even if the economy recovers, if there are no changes in health policy, according to a new report by researchers at University of California Berkeley.

Growing numbers of the uninsured will mean higher costs for financially strapped cities and states, decreased productivity and earnings, and higher costs for employers and individuals who do have coverage, concludes Ken Jacobs, primary author and chairman of the university’s Center for Labor Research and Education.

Total numbers will be higher because the estimates do not include children or the elderly. The report uses data from the March supplement for the current population survey conducted by the Census Bureau.

Released as Congress debates health care reform initiatives in President Obama’s proposed federal budget, the report documents what could happen if significant policy changes fail.

If the auto industry or other significant segments of the U.S. economy go down, the landscape will be much worse, Jacobs said.

Original Article