The American Rescue Plan substantially increases premium subsidies for coverage purchased through health insurance exchanges like Covered California. We project that these subsidies will help over 1.6 million Californians, including 151,000 individual market enrollees who will qualify for subsidies for the first time and 135,000 uninsured people who will become insured.
The UC Berkeley Labor Center and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research created the California Simulation of Insurance Markets model to help California policymakers, advocates, and stakeholders project the impacts of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on insurance coverage in California, particularly eligibility and enrollment in Medi-Cal, insurance through Covered California, and employer-based coverage, and who remains uninsured. Recently the model has been used to estimate the impact of state-based reforms to expand subsidies, reinstate the “individual mandate,” and expand eligibility for Medi-Cal coverage for undocumented young adults. CalSIM uses a wide range of official data sources, including the California Health Interview Survey.
Research & Publications
Even after the American Rescue Plan (ARP) substantially increases premium subsidies for health insurance coverage purchased through Covered California, large inequities remain in who has access to affordable coverage. Nearly 3.2 million Californians will remain uninsured in 2022, or about 9.5% of the population age 0-64, according to our projections. The highest uninsured rates will be among undocumented Californians (65%) and those eligible only for insurance through Covered California (28%).
California’s Steps to Expand Health Coverage and Improve Affordability: Who Gains and Who Will Be Uninsured?
In 2019, state lawmakers took steps to protect California’s coverage gains and increase affordability of coverage by instituting a state individual mandate penalty, providing additional subsidies for Covered California’s individual market enrollees, and expanding Medi-Cal to low-income undocumented young adults. California is the first state to include undocumented adults in full Medicaid benefits and the first to provide subsidies to middle-class consumers not eligible under the ACA.
This paper discusses the methodology behind the UC Berkeley UCLA California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) micro-simulation model, version 2.
We urge you to not change the cost of living adjustment method for the OPM to Chained CPI-U, any other the other measures mentioned in the request for comment, or any other index that shows lower growth than the current CPI-U. Additionally, we urge you to include other issues apart from cost of living adjustments when considering any changes to the OPM.
Proposed Trump Administration Change to Federal Poverty Definition Would Cut Aid to Millions of Californians
While this proposal may seem simply technical in nature, the harm in California would be very real. Over time, millions of Californians would lose eligibility for benefits or receive reduced benefits, and that reduced assistance would translate to hundreds of millions of fewer federal dollars flowing into the state’s economy.
3.6 Million Californians Would Benefit if California Takes Bold Action to Expand Coverage and Improve Affordability
Many California policymakers have expressed a desire and commitment to resist federal sabotage of the ACA, control health care costs, and achieve universal health care coverage. As the state explores ways to fundamentally redesign our health care delivery system—including by adopting a single payer or other unified public financing approach—state policymakers are also considering near-term policies that do not require federal approval but address the immediate challenges of improving affordability and expanding coverage.
RELEASE: 3.6 Million Californians to Benefit if State Takes Bold Action to Expand Coverage and Improve Affordability
California made historic gains in health insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but several million Californians remain uninsured and many struggle to afford individual market insurance.
543,000 Californians ages 0-64 were estimated to be eligible for Medi-Cal but uninsured in 2016-2017, most of whom were adults (79% were over age 18). Why are some Californians uninsured in spite of their Medi-Cal eligibility?
A new study by researchers at UC Berkeley and UCLA projects how changes to federal law that remove the Affordable Care Act (ACA) individual mandate penalty in 2019 could significantly impact California’s record-breaking health coverage gains.
We project that between 150,000 and 450,000 more Californians will be uninsured in 2020, growing to between 490,000 and 790,000 more uninsured in 2023, compared to the projected number if the ACA penalty had been maintained.
Preliminary Regional Remaining Uninsured 2017 Data Book, California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) version 2.0
This data book provides estimates of the remaining uninsured in California in 2017 by Covered California rating region and for large counties using a preliminary version of the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) model v 2.0.
While the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is expected to reduce California’s uninsurance rate by at least half, we project that between 2.7 and 3.4 million Californians will remain uninsured by…
This data book provides detailed tables of results from the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) model version 1.91 for the state of California.
In order to maximize the number of insured Californians, Covered California will need to reach individuals who become eligible for coverage between open enrollment periods. Understanding the extent and nature of churn can help in planning for ongoing enrollment, ensuring smooth health coverage transitions and continuity of care, and reducing uninsurance.
In a recent Health Affairs article, we, along with coauthor Dave Graham-Squire, examine a potential pitfall in the design and implementation of the tax subsidies individuals and families may receive…
A More than 310,000 Californians Working for Large Firms Predicted to be Enrolled in Medi-Cal in 2014 under Affordable Care Act.
This data book provides detailed tables of results from the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) model version 1.8 for the state of California.
This data book provides detailed tables of results from the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) model version 1.8 for seven California regions and selected counties.
Medi-Cal Expansion under the Affordable Care Act: Significant Increase in Coverage with Minimal Cost to the State
In this report, we estimate the growth in Medi-Cal enrollment among both the newly and already eligible using the UC Berkeley/UCLA California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) model.