Projected Health Insurance Coverage Loss by County, 2027, under Graham-Cassidy

UC Berkeley Labor Center

The table below is related to the blog post Graham-Cassidy bill: even worse for California health coverage and state budget than previous ACA repeal bills.”

These estimates reflect complete loss of federal funding for the Medi-Cal expansion and subsidized insurance through Covered California in 2027 under the Graham-Cassidy bill. These estimates also include the projected coverage loss under one possible state response to the per capita cap provisions of Graham-Cassidy: eliminating Medi-Cal eligibility for children enrolled through the Healthy Families Program and capping enrollment for certain seniors and individuals with disabilities.

Download the Excel spreadsheet.

Notes: Estimates may not sum to totals due to rounding. Estimates are rounded to the nearest 100 individuals. In the smallest counties, estimates of no coverage loss in certain categories are reflective of rounding.

Source: UC Berkeley analysis based on current ACA enrollment data by county, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates of federal funding loss in 2027 under Graham-Cassidy per capita cap provisions, and California Department of Health Care Services estimates of annual cost per Medi-Cal enrollee by eligibility group inflated to 2027.